Predictive modelling of Roman settlement in the middle Tiber valley

Title

Predictive modelling of Roman settlement in the middle Tiber valley

Creator(s)

Kay, Stephen

Witcher, Robert E.

Date

2009

Is Part Of

Archeologia e Calcolatori

Volume

20

Pages

277–290

Language

eng

Rights

CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

URI

http://www.archcalc.cnr.it/journal/id.php?id=519

Zotero BiDiAr

https://www.zotero.org/groups/5293298/bidiar/items/68PDQNMN/item-list

Abstract

This paper discusses the results of an inductive predictive modelling experiment on Roman settlement data from the middle Tiber valley, Italy. The study forms part of the British School at Rome’s Tiber Valley Project, which since its inception in 1997 has been assessing the changing landscapes of the Tiber Valley from protohistory through to the medieval period. The aim of this present study is to broaden understanding of settlement patterns via predictive modelling, and in particular to evaluate unevenness in field survey coverage, survey bias and past settlement location preferences. The predictive modelling method chosen was an application of the statistical Weights of Evidence extension for ESRI ArcView. The results highlight associations between Roman settlement and environmental themes that provide moderate predictive potential and suggest that further experimentation might prove valuable.